Patterns

If I had to distill what I did as an actuary, I’d say it was to look for repeatable patterns. For example, when I was a Boy Scout, I learned that moss grew on the north side of a tree. So, if you are ever lost in a forest and can find which side of a tree the moss is growing on, you will have a good idea of the relative north, south, east and west, and, hopefully, become unlost.

For a health actuary, the patterns we track are things like how long it takes between a medical service being performed and when we pay for it. At the end of every month, we would look at what had been paid for a given month of service to estimate how much was left that we would have to pay. In other words, how much money did we need to set aside for claims that have already happened? This is just one example of looking for patterns to predict future likely events.

Anyway, when I was working, I spent most of my driving time to work going up and down Burlingame Road. After a few days, I knew that going south, I didn’t want to be in the left lane before 27th Street because if someone needed to turn left onto 27th Street, which they often do, we would all have to wait on the traffic going north. Similarly, I didn’t want to be in the left lane going south near Clontarf Street because, again, parents are turning left to pick up their kids from the elementary school nearby and must wait for northbound traffic.

When I first retired, I was still trying to figure out how to use the time I’d previously spent working and I noticed I spent most of my driving time going up and down Wanamaker Road. Much like Burlingame Road, there are several places where you quickly figure out you don’t want to be in one lane or the other because traffic backs up.

For the past few years, most of my driving has been going north and south on Gage Boulevard. I can tell you, going north on Gage before 29th street, you’re better off being in the left lane because several turn right, backing up traffic. But, if you continue just a few blocks, you will need to change to the right lane because there is a chance someone may want to turn left near the VA hospital and you must wait on southbound traffic.

The reason I detailed three different phases I’ve gone through living here in Topeka is not my analysis of each stage but my ability to adapt to my new normal. You guessed it, I’m talking about change.

Change can happen due to our choices or because it is forced upon us. For example, my current driving phase is due to classes I take at Washburn, which is a choice I made, and because Cotton O’Neil is mostly north of where we live (not my choice but forced upon me). 

“The plans of the heart belong to man, but the answer of the tongue is from the Lord. All the ways of a man are pure in his own eyes, but the Lord weighs the spirit. Commit your work to the Lord, and your plans will be established. The Lord has made everything for its purpose, even the wicked for the day of trouble. Everyone who is arrogant in heart is an abomination to the Lord; be assured, he will not go unpunished. By steadfast love and faithfulness iniquity is atoned for, and by the fear of the Lord one turns away from evil. When a man’s ways please the Lord, he makes even his enemies to be at peace with him. Better is a little with righteousness than great revenues with injustice. The heart of man plans his way, but the Lord establishes his steps.” - Proverbs 16:1-9 ESV

In my younger days (and earlier faith walk), disruptions to my plan (change) would solicit a negative reaction. Now, I’m more likely to look for growth opportunities and trust God has a plan that I have a part in.  Don’t get me wrong, far too often an unexpected change will pop up and I’ll react negatively (hopefully just internally if at all). I must remind myself that God has a plan and, ultimately, I’m on the winning team.

“For I know the plans I have for you, declares the Lord, plans for welfare and not for evil, to give you a future and a hope.” - Jeremiah 29:11

(I understand the context of this passage was referring to Israel, but I consider myself to be a part of the new Israel with gentiles incorporated.)